Climate Adaptation Balance Change Ecosystems

Workpackage 2: Climate Change Impact on the Nutrient Run-off in Drainage Basin

WP coordinator is Viesturs Jansons, Dr. Ing., Faculty of Rural Engineering, Latvia University of Agriculture. WP participants are researchers of Faculty of Rural Engineering and Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, UL.

In the initial stage hydrological and hydro-chemical river models applied in the Baltic Sea states will be assessed and compared with the model METQ developed for hydrological modelling in Latvia. This model will be calibrated for 5-6 typical rivers of Latvia, including the Salaca River. After calibration of the METQ model under conditions of the Salaca River, the hydrological regime of this river will be modelled based on 3-5 climate change scenarios produced by WP1. Also, the climate change impact on the runoff regime and water discharge in 5-6 drainage basins of various sizes will be forecasted.

Hydrological and hydro-chemical data series necessary for modelling will be collected and systematically updated using GIS-based technologies. To calibrate the hydro-chemical model, the pollution retention in soil-field-channel -stream-river system will be studied.

The potential pressures and impacts of pollution in a medium size Latvian river (100 – 1000 km2) will be estimated by means of hydro-chemical modelling. The model used will allow assessment of the impact of climate change on the water balance, run-off regime, water quality and water resource management in Latvia.

WP2 tasks are:

  • Collect and upgrade data sets necessary for river modelling (Data Collection).
  • Investigate nutrient retention processes in soil-field - channel -river system (Nutrient Retention in Small Catchment).
  • Select and adopt models of river hydrology and hydrochemistry applicable to conditions of Latvia. Forecast climate change impact on runoff and nutrient loading in 5 -6 typical agricultural drainage basins of various size (Catchment Modeling).
  • Assess usability and quality of water resources. Assess forecast runoff variability until 2100. Forecast runoff extremes (Advice for Water Use Management).
  • Assess future changes of agricultural non-point pollution in conditions of climate change (Mitigation of Non-point Pollution).

WP2 outputs will be:

  • Summarized data sets for hydrological model calibration. Initiated collection of long-term hydro-chemical data for model calibration in the sub-basins of the selected river.
  • Determined nutrient retention factors in different scales of hydrographic network and sub-basins of the selected river.
  • Tested application options of the selected mathematical model(s) for rivers of Latvia.
  • Assessed climate change impact on the runoff regime and water quality of rivers of Latvia.
  • Assessed changes of non-point pollution under conditions of climate change.