National Research Program (NRP): Climate Change Impact on Water Environment in Latvia

	Hydrological regime
	Nutrient fluxes
	Inland water ecosystems
	Coastal processes
	Marine bio-geochemistry
	Marine ecology
	Adaptation
	Management and public outreach
	Runoff extremes

Workpackage 6: Climate change impact on ecosystems and biological diversity of the Baltic Sea.

WP6 coordinator is Anda Ikauniece, Dr. biol., Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology. WP6 participants are researchers of Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvian Fish Resource Agency and Biological Institute UL.

WP6 aim is determining to what extent the consequences of climate change in the Baltic Sea could alternate marine ecosystem: species composition, trophic relationships and habitats. Planned experiments will allow estimating of potential short-term impact of climate change on marine biota. In parallel, historical long-term data will be analysed to understand how each group of marine biota (from protists to fishes) will react to changes in the environment. Response reaction of the marine ecosystem to changing environment will be modelled in collaboration with WP1 and WP5. Findings of the work package will be utilized to facilitate protection of the marine environmental quality and secure sustainable use of marine recourses.

WP 6 tasks are:

Forecast variations in species composition and population dynamics in the Baltic Sea in relation to climate change. Assess potential influence of climate change on food-web structure and thophic relationships of populations in the Baltic (Community structure and dynamics).
Develop a long-term prognostic model to forecast fish growth, stock dynamics, and structure of fish communities based on climatic and human impact (Fish community model).
Produce an advice for development and implementation of policy for sustainable management of marine living resources (mainly fish) (Advice to fisheries policy).
Advice on development and implementation of WFD (coastal and transitional water bodies of Latvia), EU maritime policy, EU Marine Strategy Directive, and HLCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (Advice to environmental policy).

WP6 outputs will be:

Forecast of climate change impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystems and biological diversity.
Long-term prognostic model of fish growth, stock dynamics and structure of fish community in relation to scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic impacts.
Advice in course of development and implementation of European Water Framework Directive (WFD): coastal and transitional waters of Latvia, European Marine Strategy Directive, HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.
Advice for protection and conservation of biological diversity in the Baltic Sea areas adjacent to the coast of Latvia.
Suggestions for sustainable, ecosystem-based management of marine environment taking into account climate change. Advice for implementation of sustainable fisheries policy.