Workpackage 9: Runoff extremes caused by the climate change and their impact on territories under the flood risk.
WP9 coordinator is Arturs Skute, Dr. boil., professor of Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics University of Daugavpils. W9 team involves scientists of Institute of Research and Management of Biological Resources, University of Daugavpils and Latvian Fish Resources Agency.
The aim of WP 9 is to forecast climate change impact on recurrence and regime of runoff extremes: floods and lasting droughts. Indentify the impact of these phenomena on flood plain ecosystems in the Middle-Daugava region. The new knowledge produced by WP 9 will allow creating of proposals to adopt human activities towards mitigation of flood risk in Middle-Daugava territories.
WP9 tasks are:
- - Assessment of historical and current frequency of flood recurrence and climate change impact on it (History of runoff extremes).
- - Forecast changes in regime of floods and draughts based on the scenarios of hydrological regime (Flood and drought forecast).
- - Identify the role of natural flood-plains in stabilizing of hydrological regime (Role of flood-planes).
- - Identify impact of floods and draughts on faxes of matter in flood-plains and drainage basin (Flood-plain biogeochemistry).
- - Assess impact of floods and runoff minimums on the ecosystems of flood-plains (Flood-plain ecosystems).
- - Create recommendations for adaptation activities to mitigate flood and draught risk and minimize associated economic losses (Mitigation of flood and drought risk).
WP9 outputs will be:
- Summarized data on recurrence frequency and intensity of runoff extremes and climate change impact on these parameters.
- Forecast of flood and extreme low runoff regime within 50 and 100-year periods under various climate scenarios.
- Created digital terrain model for Naujiene Jekabpils section the Daugava river valley. Delineated territories threatened at various flood levels. Identified role of flood-plains and wetlands in mitigation of risk caused by runoff extremes.
- Updated data-sets on ecosystem changes in flood-plain lakes of Middle-Daugava and assessed impact of floods on these ecosystems. Working prognostic model of ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical turnover in flood-plain lakes of Middle Daugava. Forecast of flood-plain system dynamics under impact of climate change.
- Adapted EuroSEM erosion model; assessed transport of nutrients and suspended matter from up-steam parts of the hydrological network to recipient water bodies.
- Recommendations for adaptation activities of economic, environmental and spatial planning sectors towards mitigation of flood and draught risk.