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Workpackage 1: Climate change impact on runoff, nutrient flows, and regime of the Baltic Sea.
WP coordinator is Uldis Bethers, Dr. Phys., Faculty of Physics and Mathematics, UL. WP participants are researchers of the Laboratory of Modelling of Environmental and Technological Processes (FPhM, UL), Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences (UL), Institute of Biology (UL).
WP will prepare data series and will provide analytical and modelling support to the other WPs. Each date series will consist of 3-5 scenarios describing 50 100 year period with a resolution of 1 day.
Data series will include:
1) Meteorological data sets corresponding with the climate change scenarios
(2) Runoff and nutrient flow data sets calculated by means of mathematical modelling
3) Long-term predictions of the Gulf of Riga physical properties and processes based upon runoff /loading forecast.
Models developed by the WP will be based on the global atmospheric circulation models and their own-scaling to regional level. Models will be calibrated verified by means of comparison with historical data with hind-casting results. Model systems will then be utilized for calculations of the drainage basin and marine state, using predicted climate variables as input data. Thus the methods routinely used for assessment of observation data series will be used to analyse possible future situations.
WP1 tasks are:
WP1 outputs will be: