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Workpackage 2: Climate Change Impact on the Nutrient Run-off in Drainage Basin
WP coordinator is Viesturs Jansons, Dr. Ing., Faculty of Rural Engineering, Latvia University of Agriculture. WP participants are researchers of Faculty of Rural Engineering and Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, UL.
In the initial stage hydrological and hydro-chemical river models applied in the Baltic Sea states will be assessed and compared with the model METQ developed for hydrological modelling in Latvia. This model will be calibrated for 5-6 typical rivers of Latvia, including the Salaca River. After calibration of the METQ model under conditions of the Salaca River, the hydrological regime of this river will be modelled based on 3-5 climate change scenarios produced by WP1. Also, the climate change impact on the runoff regime and water discharge in 5-6 drainage basins of various sizes will be forecasted.
Hydrological and hydro-chemical data series necessary for modelling will be collected and systematically updated using GIS-based technologies. To calibrate the hydro-chemical model, the pollution retention in soil-field-channel -stream-river system will be studied.
The potential pressures and impacts of pollution in a medium size Latvian river (100 1000 km2) will be estimated by means of hydro-chemical modelling. The model used will allow assessment of the impact of climate change on the water balance, run-off regime, water quality and water resource management in Latvia.
WP2 tasks are:
WP2 outputs will be: